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From the beginning of 2016 to September 30, all A-shares fell by 12.84% (the weighted average method of circulating market value, the same below), the small and medium-sized board fell by 14.24%, and the GEM fell by 17.26%. All industries except food and beverages fell. The industry fell 10.98%, ranking tenth out of 28 industries. Among the sub-sectors, semiconductors fell 20.17%, electronic components fell 4.2%, optics and optoelectronics fell 10.29%, and electronic equipment and manufacturing fell 14.34%. Judging from the market performance of the electronics industry in the past year, the overall growth rate of the electronics industry is stronger than that of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300.

Semiconductor is still an investment hotspot

Investment in the localization of semiconductors is progressing smoothly, and local funds are gradually in place. The National Semiconductor Industry Fund (Big Fund) has invested in 37 projects and 28 companies, with a committed investment of 68.3 billion yuan, about half of the size of the first-phase fund. Such a large-scale investment will definitely promote the development of the semiconductor industry, and follow-up investment will continue. The semiconductor industry will still become a hot spot for investment in the future.

In the third quarter of 2016, the overall price-earnings ratio of the semiconductor industry continued to decline, and the premium rate relative to the overall electronics industry declined. In particular, after the valuation of the semiconductor material sector reached its peak in mid-August, the correction was obvious, and the price-earnings ratio dropped from the highest point of 138 times to about 104 times. However, based on the good environment for semiconductor investment, the valuation level of the semiconductor sector is still in a safe area, and a correction is expected in the fourth quarter.

At present, the semiconductor sector is still relatively low compared to Q4 in 2015. Both integrated circuits, discrete devices, and semiconductor materials are at a low level, and there is room for further growth. In addition, due to the investment of large funds in 2016, the performance of companies receiving financial support is expected to increase significantly, but the technical threshold of the semiconductor industry is relatively high, and the performance will have a lagging effect. Compared with other sub-sectors, semiconductor packaging and testing manufacturers are expected to make achievements one step ahead.

PCB price increase cycle will continue

Under the background of rising prices of upstream copper foil (CCL) and glass fiber cloth since the first half of this year, coupled with the strong demand for downstream PCBs, PCB manufacturers have adjusted prices this year and experienced a substantial increase in revenue and a significant improvement in cash flow. phenomenon, and the overall gross profit margin has also improved. It is expected that the price of copper foil and materials will continue to rise in the fourth quarter, which will help maintain the high prosperity of the PCB industry. At present, the fastest growing field of domestic PCB orders comes from automotive electronics, especially pure electric vehicles. Automotive electronics account for a high proportion of the cost of the vehicle. The current output value of automotive electronics PCB is 5.3 billion US dollars, and it is expected to reach about 7 billion US dollars in 2020. In addition to automotive electronics, there is also strong demand in the fields of communications, servers, consumer electronics, and industry.

Judging from the BB value of the North American PCB industry that is commonly used internationally, on September 28, 2016, the American International Electronics Industry Connection Association released the "August 2016 North American PCB Industry Research and Statistics Report", which data shows that in August, the United States PCB Order shipments returned to a positive value of 1.02. Total PCB shipments in North America in August fell 4.1% year-on-year in 2015, and shipments fell 3.1% compared to the previous month. From the perspective of order volume, PCB order volume in August increased by 2.4% year-on-year. It can be seen that the order volume in August returned to growth.

As we all know, the competition in the PCB industry is relatively fierce. This round of rising material prices and the improvement of supply and demand are expected to further increase the concentration of the industry. Some manufacturers with strong comprehensive strength will usher in rare opportunities for industrial adjustment. And will fully benefit from the improvement in revenue brought about by the recovery growth of the PCB industry.

The domestic PCB industry is currently affected by the price increase of upstream materials, and they have issued price increase notices one after another. Coupled with the boost in downstream demand, it is expected that this round of price increase cycle will continue until next year.

The boom in consumer electronics is expected to continue

Although the growth rate of the overall smartphone market has slowed down, Samsung's new phones in the high-end phone market have encountered a black swan incident, and Apple's new phones have been criticized for insufficient innovation. However, from the sales reports released by major consulting companies, we found that domestic smartphones have achieved impressive results this year. October is the period when major domestic manufacturers release new phones. In 2016, consumer electronics will usher in a wave of upsurge. DIGITIMES estimates that the annual growth of global smartphone shipments will reach 7.2% in 2016. In 2017, it will exceed 1.52 billion units. Among the top 20 brands, except for Apple, the others are all Asian brands, among which there will be 11 mainland brands.

Judging from the performance of the domestic consumer electronics industry chain in the first three quarters, some components such as camera modules, fingerprint recognition modules, driver ICs, panels, chips, and memories were once out of stock, which shows the rise of Chinese smartphone manufacturers. It is both a challenge and an opportunity for the supply chain. For the smartphone industry chain, this year can be called a hot year. Sony’s image sensor factory is in full production, the shipment of fingerprint recognition modules continues to increase, the shipment of cover solutions increases, and the camera module continues to increase. , AMOLED panels for mobile phones were once out of stock, orders were transferred due to the Samsung battery incident, memory prices increased, and so on.

It is recommended to pay attention to the domestic smartphone industry chain: Changying Precision, Shentianma A, Oufeiguang, Helitai, Lianchuang Electronics, Lens Technology, Xingxing Technology, and Jubilee Technology.